Weighted pipeline
What your open deals are worth, adjusted for how likely they are
For each open deal: value × stage probability.
Add them up by expected close month.
Example: a $12,000 deal at Proposal (50%) adds $6,000 to its close month.
Free template · Sales forecasting
A forecast you can actually defend.
Two methods side by side: what your pipeline says and what your history says, month by month for a year. How each one works is below, free. The kit adds the Excel workbook and a guide to running the weekly forecast.
- methods compared
- 2
- month view
- 12
Free · Thirty minutes to set up with your numbers. Ten minutes a week after that.
Sales Forecast Workbook
A forecast you can defend: weighted pipeline, run rate and a 12-month view in one workbook.
- Forecast workbook: deals, history, 12-month view XLSX
- The methods and the weekly forecast PDF
No invented benchmarks: every probability starts as a default you replace with your own win rates, and every number traces back to a deal or a month of history.
Why two methods
A pipeline forecast tells you what should close if deals behave the way they usually do. A run-rate forecast tells you what you'll close if next month looks like the last few. Each is wrong in its own way.
Put them side by side and the gap is the interesting part: a pipeline far above your run rate usually means optimistic stages or stale deals; far below means you need more pipeline, soon.
The rules
Four rules for an honest forecast.
A forecast is only as good as the habits behind it.
- 01
Use your own win rates
Once you have 20 or more closed deals, replace the default stage probabilities with what actually happened.
- 02
Forecast by close month
Every deal needs an expected close date, and it moves when the buyer says so, not when the month ends.
- 03
Separate commit from hope
Commit is what you'd bet on. Best case adds what could land. Pipeline is everything else.
- 04
Review weekly, same time
A forecast updated once a quarter is a guess with a spreadsheet around it.
The methods
How each number is worked out.
The workbook does the arithmetic. This is what it's doing, so you can explain it in a board meeting.
Commit and best case
What the people closing the deals believe
Commit: deals the owner would bet on closing this month.
Best case: commit plus deals that could close with a push.
Pipeline: everything else, which isn't in either number.
Run rate
What your recent history says
Average closed revenue over the last three months, grown by the trend you choose.
Example: $30,000, $34,000 and $32,000 give a $32,000 run rate; with 2% monthly growth, next month is about $32,640.
Reading the gap
When the methods disagree.
The Forecast tab shows both for each month. Here's what the difference usually means.
| What you see | Likely cause | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted pipeline well above run rate | Optimistic probabilities, or stale deals still counted | Check stage win rates; close or re-date stale deals |
| Weighted pipeline well below run rate | Not enough new pipeline for the months ahead | Prioritise prospecting now; it takes a sales cycle to show |
| Commit far below weighted pipeline | Deals in late stages the owners don't believe in | Ask each owner what would make them commit, or move the deal back a stage |
| Both methods agree | Stable business, honest stages | Keep the weekly habit |
AutomateNexus CRM
Or let the forecast build itself.
In AutomateNexus CRM the revenue forecast comes from your own closed history, and the pipeline behind it updates as deals move, so nobody rebuilds the spreadsheet on a Friday afternoon.
See the automation templates- Deal stages, values and close dates live on the deals themselves, not in a copy.
- Deal Stage Change Alerts tell the team whenever a deal moves, with the who and the why.
- The Follow Up on Stale Deals automation keeps quiet deals from inflating the forecast.
FAQ
Questions, answered.
List your open deals with a value, a stage and an expected close month, multiply each by its stage probability and add them up by month. Then compare that with a run-rate forecast from your last few months of closed revenue, and investigate any big gap.
A forecast that counts each open deal at its value multiplied by the probability of winning it at its current stage. A $20,000 deal at a 25% stage counts as $5,000.
No single method is reliably accurate. Using two, such as weighted pipeline and historical run rate, and understanding why they differ, is more useful than trusting either one alone.
Forecast the current quarter in detail, deal by deal, and the next two or three quarters from run rate and pipeline coverage. The workbook shows a rolling 12 months.
Your own. Start with defaults such as 10% for new leads and 75% for negotiation, then, once you have 20 or more closed deals, work out what share of deals that reached each stage were won, and use that.
Free · Thirty minutes to set up with your numbers. Ten minutes a week after that.
Sales Forecast Workbook
A forecast you can defend: weighted pipeline, run rate and a 12-month view in one workbook.
- Forecast workbook: deals, history, 12-month view XLSX
- The methods and the weekly forecast PDF
Your turn
Or let the CRM send it on time.
Templates only work when someone sends them. AutomateNexus CRM keeps every deal's next step in front of you, with Karrie and eight AI agents on every plan.